Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Odds Jump After Trump’s Remark on Hassett
The race for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken a dramatic turn, with Kevin Warsh’s odds of securing the top spot surging after a remark from US President Donald Trump. In a recent statement, Trump expressed his desire to keep Kevin Hassett, the current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, in his current role. This announcement has significant implications for the Fed Chair race, with Warsh emerging as the clear frontrunner.
According to prediction markets, Warsh’s odds of becoming the next Fed Chair have jumped to nearly 60% on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. This sudden surge in Warsh’s odds can be directly attributed to Trump’s comment on Hassett, which has led many to believe that Warsh is now the president’s top choice for the position.
Trump’s statement on Hassett has been seen as a significant indicator of his intentions, with many analysts interpreting it as a sign that Warsh is the leading contender for the Fed Chair role. The fact that Trump has explicitly stated his desire to keep Hassett in his current position suggests that he is not considering him for the Fed Chair position, thereby clearing the way for Warsh.
The Federal Reserve Chair is one of the most influential positions in the US economy, responsible for setting monetary policy and regulating the nation’s banking system. The current Chair, Janet Yellen, is set to step down in February 2018, and Trump’s decision on her replacement will have far-reaching implications for the economy and financial markets.
Warsh, a former Fed Governor, has been a long-time contender for the top spot. His experience and expertise in monetary policy make him an attractive candidate, and his close ties to the Trump administration have only strengthened his chances. Warsh has been a vocal advocate for a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, which aligns with Trump’s desire to see higher interest rates and a stronger dollar.
The prediction markets’ odds on Warsh’s candidacy have been steadily increasing over the past few weeks, but Trump’s remark on Hassett has sent them soaring. On Kalshi, Warsh’s odds have jumped to 59.5%, while on Polymarket, he is leading with 58.2% odds. These numbers indicate that the market is increasingly confident that Warsh will be Trump’s choice for the Fed Chair position.
Trump has stated that he has already made his decision on the next Fed Chair and will announce it later this month. This timeline suggests that the market will have to wait a little longer to find out who will succeed Yellen. However, based on the current odds and Trump’s recent statement, it seems increasingly likely that Warsh will be the one to take the reins at the Fed.
The implications of a Warsh-led Fed are significant, with many analysts expecting a more aggressive approach to monetary policy. Warsh has been critical of the Fed’s current approach, arguing that it has been too slow to raise interest rates and too quick to print money. If he were to become the next Fed Chair, it is likely that he would push for higher interest rates and a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.
In conclusion, the race for the next Fed Chair has taken a dramatic turn, with Kevin Warsh’s odds surging after Trump’s remark on Kevin Hassett. The prediction markets are now firmly behind Warsh, with nearly 60% odds on Kalshi and Polymarket. While Trump’s decision is still pending, it seems increasingly likely that Warsh will be the one to succeed Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve Chair.
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