Gold may jump to ₹1.55 lakh per 10 gram in 2026: JM Financial VP
The year 2025 has been a remarkable one for gold investors, with the precious metal touching an all-time high of ₹1.40 lakh per 10 gram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). As the year comes to a close, market experts are predicting a continued surge in gold prices, with some even forecasting that it could reach ₹1.50-₹1.55 lakh per 10 gram in 2026. According to Pranav Mer, Vice President of JM Financial Services, gold prices are expected to remain bullish in the coming year, driven by a combination of factors including global economic trends, central bank policies, and investor demand.
Gold futures on the MCX have been on a tear in recent months, driven by a weakening rupee and a surge in global gold prices. On Friday, gold futures touched an all-time high of ₹1.40 lakh per 10 gram before ending at ₹1.39 lakh. While the gains have been impressive, Mer cautioned that investors should not expect similar returns in 2026. “The returns in 2025 have been exceptional, but we don’t expect the same level of gains next year,” he said. “However, gold prices are still expected to remain strong, driven by a combination of factors including a weakening dollar, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions.”
One of the key drivers of gold prices in 2026 is expected to be the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The Fed has been raising interest rates aggressively in recent months to combat inflation, but Mer believes that the pace of rate hikes will slow down in the coming year. “The Fed is expected to pause its rate hike cycle in 2026, which could lead to a weakening of the dollar and a subsequent surge in gold prices,” he said. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors, as it becomes cheaper for buyers holding other currencies to purchase the metal.
Another factor that could drive gold prices higher in 2026 is central bank demand. Central banks around the world have been buying gold aggressively in recent years, driven by a desire to diversify their reserves and reduce their dependence on the US dollar. According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought a record 399 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2025, driven by purchases from countries such as China, Russia, and Turkey. Mer believes that central bank demand will continue to be a key driver of gold prices in 2026, as more countries look to diversify their reserves and reduce their exposure to the dollar.
In addition to central bank demand, investor demand is also expected to remain strong in 2026. Gold has traditionally been seen as a safe-haven asset, and investors often turn to it during times of economic uncertainty. With the global economy facing a number of challenges, including rising inflation, slowing growth, and geopolitical tensions, Mer believes that investor demand for gold will remain robust. “Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, and with inflation expectations rising, we expect investor demand to remain strong,” he said.
While gold prices are expected to remain strong in 2026, Mer cautioned that there are also risks to the outlook. One of the key risks is a stronger-than-expected US economy, which could lead to a surge in the dollar and a subsequent decline in gold prices. Additionally, a resolution to the ongoing geopolitical tensions could also lead to a decline in gold prices, as investors become less risk-averse and more willing to take on risk.
In terms of silver prices, Mer believes that they will also remain strong in 2026, driven by a combination of factors including industrial demand and investor interest. Silver prices have been surging in recent months, driven by a shortage of the metal and strong demand from industries such as solar and electronics. According to Mer, silver prices could touch ₹2.75 lakh per kilogram in 2026, driven by a combination of industrial and investor demand.
In conclusion, gold prices are expected to remain strong in 2026, driven by a combination of factors including central bank demand, investor interest, and a weakening dollar. While the returns in 2025 have been exceptional, Mer cautioned that investors should not expect similar gains next year. However, with gold prices expected to touch ₹1.50-₹1.55 lakh per 10 gram in 2026, investors who are looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation may still find gold to be an attractive investment option.
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