Kevin Warsh Fed Chair odds jump after Trump’s remark on Hassett
The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, has been a topic of interest in recent months, particularly with regards to the upcoming appointment of a new Chair. The current Chair, Jerome Powell, is set to step down, and the race to succeed him has been heating up. In a recent development, Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, has seen his odds of becoming the next Fed Chair jump significantly after a remark by US President Donald Trump.
According to reports, President Trump stated that he wants Kevin Hassett, the current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to remain in his current role. This statement has been interpreted by many as a sign that Trump is not considering Hassett for the position of Fed Chair, which has in turn boosted the odds of other candidates, including Kevin Warsh.
Warsh leads the betting
On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, Kevin Warsh has emerged as the clear frontrunner to become the next Fed Chair. With nearly 60% odds, Warsh is currently the favorite to succeed Jerome Powell. This is a significant increase from his previous odds, and it reflects the market’s perception that Trump’s comment on Hassett has reduced the latter’s chances of getting the job.
Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, has been seen as a strong candidate for the position due to his experience and expertise in monetary policy. He has been a vocal advocate for a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, which aligns with the views of many Republicans. His candidacy has been boosted by his connections to the Trump administration, and many see him as a potential favorite of the President.
Trump’s decision and announcement
In a statement, President Trump said that he has already made his decision on who will be the next Fed Chair, and that he will announce it later this month. This has added to the speculation and anticipation surrounding the appointment, with many analysts and investors eagerly awaiting the announcement.
The appointment of a new Fed Chair is a critical decision that will have significant implications for the US economy and financial markets. The Fed Chair plays a key role in setting monetary policy, and their decisions can have far-reaching consequences for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.
Implications for the economy and markets
The potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has significant implications for the economy and financial markets. Warsh is seen as a more hawkish candidate, which means that he may be more likely to raise interest rates and reduce the money supply. This could have a positive impact on the US dollar and bond yields, but it could also lead to higher borrowing costs and reduced economic growth.
On the other hand, if Trump were to appoint a more dovish candidate, such as Janet Yellen or Lael Brainard, it could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, with lower interest rates and increased money supply. This could boost economic growth and reduce unemployment, but it could also lead to higher inflation and reduced purchasing power.
Conclusion
The race to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair is heating up, and Kevin Warsh has emerged as a clear frontrunner after President Trump’s remark on Kevin Hassett. With nearly 60% odds on prediction markets, Warsh is currently the favorite to become the next Fed Chair. The appointment of a new Fed Chair will have significant implications for the US economy and financial markets, and investors and analysts are eagerly awaiting Trump’s announcement later this month.
As the situation continues to unfold, it will be important to monitor the developments and adjust our expectations accordingly. One thing is certain, however: the appointment of a new Fed Chair will be a critical decision that will shape the course of the US economy and financial markets for years to come.
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