Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Odds Jump After Trump’s Remark on Hassett
The race for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken an interesting turn, with Kevin Warsh’s odds of securing the position surging after a remark by US President Donald Trump. In a recent statement, Trump expressed his desire to keep Kevin Hassett in his current role as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, rather than considering him for the Fed Chair position. This announcement has sent shockwaves through prediction markets, with Warsh now leading the betting with nearly 60% odds on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
The development has significant implications for the future of monetary policy in the United States, with Warsh’s potential appointment likely to have a profound impact on the direction of the economy. As a former Fed Governor, Warsh has a deep understanding of the inner workings of the central bank and has been a vocal advocate for a more hawkish approach to monetary policy. His potential appointment has been met with a mixture of excitement and trepidation, with some investors welcoming his experience and expertise, while others express concerns about his potential to tighten monetary policy too quickly.
Trump’s decision to keep Hassett in his current role is seen as a significant boost to Warsh’s chances, as it removes a key competitor from the running. Hassett, a well-respected economist and former academic, had been considered a dark horse candidate for the Fed Chair position. However, with Trump’s announcement, it appears that he will remain in his current role, at least for the time being.
The prediction markets have reacted quickly to the news, with Warsh’s odds surging on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. On Kalshi, Warsh’s odds of becoming the next Fed Chair have risen to nearly 60%, making him the clear frontrunner. Similarly, on Polymarket, Warsh’s odds have jumped to over 55%, with other candidates such as Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen trailing behind.
The surge in Warsh’s odds is not surprising, given his experience and qualifications for the role. A former Fed Governor, Warsh has a deep understanding of the central bank’s operations and has been a vocal advocate for a more hawkish approach to monetary policy. His potential appointment would likely be welcomed by investors who are looking for a more disciplined approach to monetary policy, although it may also raise concerns about the potential for higher interest rates and a slower economy.
Trump’s decision to announce his choice for Fed Chair this month has added an extra layer of excitement to the race. With the President having made his decision, it is now a matter of waiting to see who will be appointed to the position. The announcement is likely to have significant implications for the markets, with investors and economists alike eagerly awaiting the news.
In conclusion, the race for the next Fed Chair has taken a significant turn, with Kevin Warsh’s odds surging after Trump’s remark on Kevin Hassett. With Warsh now leading the betting on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, it appears that he is the clear frontrunner for the position. However, the appointment of the next Fed Chair is never a certainty, and investors will need to wait until the official announcement is made before they can be sure of the outcome.
As the markets await the announcement, one thing is clear: the next Fed Chair will have a profound impact on the direction of the economy. With the US economy continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace, the next Fed Chair will need to balance the need for monetary policy discipline with the risk of slowing down the economy too quickly. It is a challenging task, but one that Kevin Warsh, with his experience and expertise, may be well-suited to handle.
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